Stocks, Diwali 2024 edition
Hah. It's been a while you know. I am busy, you are busy and we all are busy. I've been missing out on a lot of things. But it's what it is. So, guys. What are you up to! What stocks have you been buying and selling. Fill us in. Share your model portfolio for the year 2024.
A prelude to the next talks
On 13th June 2024, I visited a new dermatologist in the medical college. What a guy! He asked about my profession. And the magic words "Stock Market" slipped from my mouth. We talked about AI, Chat GPT, Big Data and stocks. He asked me "which stock is gonna make the next waves"! I politely corrected him and I encouraged him to search stocks from his own field. I gave an example of Abbott India. From gas meds(Rzole DSR) to laxatives (Cremaffin and Cremaffin Plus), one can see Abbott, Abbott and Abbott. So, why not invest in Abbott!
Chart Source: Zerodha Kite, Daily Time Frame. Red Line -> 50 EMA and Yellow Line -> 200 EMA, Date:19th Oct, 2024
Just 5.5% return is not much but I am glad that I am able to save my face and still able to say that hey, "I told you so". Well, that is just an exaggeration. It was a pure coincidence and hey, it did not beat the top performers. But I was trying to make a point. Choose a stock market sector that you understand.
That's just one way of doing it. Another way of doing it to look for mutual fund portfolios in sites like moneycontrol. Smart fund mangers from top biz schools are no fools.
Source: Nippon India Large Cap Fund. MoneyControl link
Source: JM Large Cap Fund, MoneyControl link
Look at 4-5 different top rated funds from the same category. And then you can run a program/inspect visually to match similar stocks in their portfolio. A beginner can some how safely invest in those stocks. "Some how safe" is a relative term and may backfire completely. But, one has to start somewhere.
To be able to pick stocks, you don't need to be Mr know it all. All you need to be able to anticipate the overall possible outcome either in short/long term. I will give a live example. Recently Cyclone Dana has hit Odisha and Bengal. Okay. This is a bit insensitive to say but people often find ways to make the most out of an opportunity. First response of anyone residing in those affected places/Govt authorities of those places will be to buy dry food e.g., biscuits, namkeen etc, ORS powder, essential meds, dry cell batteries etc. Britannia is listed and has a wide array of products. And maybe some of the biscuits procured in bulk are from the stables of Britannia. So, next quarterly result might be a bit optimistic. Let's take another example. Winter is approaching and festive sales are almost over. After winter comes the summer. And with summer comes the scorching heat. People buy ACs to beat the heat. They must have done so during these festive seasons. And they might do that again in sales during Xmas, New Year, Republic Day, Holi etc, before summer. People will also maintain their old ACs too. So, next quarter for those stocks must be soo lit. Same goes with icecream and cold beverage industries.
Share you thoughts...........
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Lol. It does. For even copying something you need some brain. What about people losing lively hood? Well! People eat biscuits n pan masala. Why? You research. We ll see after 3-4 months if Britannia fares well or not. There is no hard and fast rule for investing. Real stupidity is to ignore that fact.
Good to see your post 
Coat tailing doesn't work in investing. Buying what popular mutual funds are buying is a recipe for disaster. Also that Britannia example is super stupid. What about people losing livelihood thus cutting down consumption and not being able to purchase Britannia products! It works both ways.